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BJP Gains Strength in Delhi, AAP Faces Challenges Ahead of Assembly Elections

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Delhi Assembly Elections: Anti-Incumbency Wave and Corruption Allegations Weigh on AAP

BJP’s Strategy Shift and AAP’s Decline: What to Expect in Delhi’s 2025 Elections

New Delhi, February 3, 2025: As the Delhi Assembly elections approach, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to form the government, but political experts predict that it may not achieve the same level of success as in 2015 and 2020. This time, there is a noticeable anti-incumbency wave against the ruling Delhi government, and discontent within the party itself could impact its performance. Experts recognize that AAP may face losses in the upcoming elections.

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has grown stronger, with a shift in strategy over the past two years. The party has moved its focus from communal issues to strengthening its organizational base and reaching out to every section of society. Voting for all 70 Delhi Assembly constituencies will take place in a single phase on February 5. Ahead of the elections, the Bhaskar team visited various parts of Delhi to gauge voter sentiment, speaking with political analysts, senior journalists, and the general public. Here are four key insights:

Anti-Incumbency and Loss of Credibility: AAP has been in power for the past 10 years, and the anti-incumbency wave is becoming evident. Kejriwal’s previously clean image has suffered due to corruption allegations, the Shishmahel case, the liquor scam, and the defection of eight AAP MLAs before the elections. These issues could work against the party.

Direct Contest Between AAP and BJP: The election appears to be a direct contest between AAP and BJP. The loss of votes for AAP could directly benefit the BJP. The BJP’s vote share could exceed 40%, and the party’s seat count may increase. AAP is expected to win 43-47 seats, while BJP is predicted to secure 23-27 seats in the 70-member Assembly.

BJP’s Free Schemes vs AAP’s Free Schemes: BJP has also promised free schemes to voters, trying to create an impression that the AAP government has failed. AAP’s inability to provide ₹1000 honorarium to women in Punjab has further weakened its image, especially among women voters.

Congress’ Impact on AAP’s Vote Share: While Congress may not be strong enough to win seats, it is expected to draw votes away from AAP. Congress’ vote share could increase to 7% from the 4.3% it secured in 2020.

Voter Demographics and Influencing Factors:

AAP has been in power in Delhi since 2015, and after being out of power for 27 years, BJP is attempting a comeback. The BJP won only 3 seats in 2015 and 8 seats in 2020, while Congress did not win a single seat in either of those elections. In 2008, Congress had secured 43 seats, with 40.3% of the vote share, which dropped to just 4.3% in 2020.

Muslims make up approximately 12.9% of Delhi’s population. Their votes significantly influence constituencies like East Delhi, Chandni Chowk, and New Delhi. Jat and Gurjar communities, together comprising 17-20% of the vote, have a major impact on 50 constituencies in Delhi.

In the Eastern region, 25% of voters in constituencies like Burari, Badli, Sangam Vihar, Palam, Karawal Nagar, and Patpadganj directly influence 25 seats. Dalit voters, who account for 18% of the population, are another crucial segment for any party aiming to secure a win in Delhi.

The outcome of these elections will depend heavily on how effectively each party can reach out to these key voter groups and manage the issues at hand.


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