India’s Contribution to Global Trade Growth to Exceed 6% in the Next Five Years

Global Trade Growth to Remain Steady Despite Policy Uncertainty

Despite geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in trade policies worldwide, global trade growth is expected to remain steady. According to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, jointly published by New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics brand DHL, India is projected to contribute more than 6% to global trade growth over the next five years. The report analyzes business patterns across 200 countries and regions.

India is expected to rank third in global trade expansion, following China and the United States. China’s contribution to global trade growth is estimated at 12%, while the U.S. is expected to contribute 10%. Compared to other major economies, India has demonstrated strong trade growth, which positions it among the top three nations in terms of trade expansion. Additionally, India’s trade growth ranking is anticipated to improve significantly, moving from 32nd place to 17th place.

The report highlights that India’s rapid trade growth is driven by both its strong macroeconomic performance and its increasing participation in international trade. While China is often regarded as a more trade-oriented economy, in 2023, India’s trade-to-GDP ratio for goods was nearly equivalent to that of China. Furthermore, when considering both goods and services, India’s trade intensity surpassed that of China.

India’s Foreign Trade Outlook Remains Strong

According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in March 2025, India’s total exports (goods and services) are projected to reach $750.53 billion (₹64 lakh crore) during April-February 2024-25. In the previous financial year, this figure stood at ₹60 lakh crore, reflecting an estimated annual growth of 6.24%. Trade with key partners such as the United States, UAE, UK, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia remains significant and essential for India’s economic growth.